Figure 1: Hurricane Dorian (Source)
Climate change is an ongoing global issue that threatens every part of the world, including hurricanes. Meteorologists have been using computer models to predict the form and path of hurricanes, which is caused by tropical cyclones in changing air pressure. Though it is not clear whether climate change has a direct relationship with the frequency of hurricanes, research demonstrates that climate change results in their greater intensity and impact. Major aspects of climate change, such as rising sea surface temperatures and sea levels, are estimated to contribute to increasing the level of damage caused by hurricanes. Therefore, many researchers are highly interested in extreme hurricanes and potential prevention or management methods.
According to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, based solely on the hurricane’s maximum sustained wind speed, all hurricanes are categorized in levels ranging from 1 to 5. Hurricanes in categories 3, 4, and 5 are considered to be major hurricanes and have a sustained wind speed of 111 to 129 mph, 130 to 156 mph, and 157 mph or higher, respectively. All three major hurricanes are expected to cause extreme damage to communities, with hurricanes of categories 4 and 5 predicted to cause catastrophic damage. Currently, there are a total of 37 hurricanes classified under Category 5, including Hurricane Dorian and Hurricane Lorenzo (the most recent Category 5 hurricanes that occurred in 2019). Such Category 5 hurricanes are defined as the most intense hurricanes that can form and exist on planet Earth.
However, scientists have been debating whether Category 5 is suitable for some of the world’s most extreme hurricanes. For instance, Hurricane Dorian is recorded not only as the most intense tropical cyclone in the Bahamas, but also as the worst natural disaster in the Bahamas. Hurricane Dorian is also one of the most catastrophic hurricanes of Category 5. Hurricane Dorian had a maximum wind speed of around 185 mph, which is far greater than the 157 mph standard for Category 5, causing climate scientists to advocate for the establishment of Category 6.
With the recent development of Category 6, climate scientists anticipate hurricanes with wind speeds of 300 mph. To minimize damage by preparing adequate countermeasures and management efforts, scientists have been involved in simulating a Category 6 hurricane. With a 12.8 million dollar grant from the National Science Foundation, researchers from Florida International University and other prestigious universities are working on mimicking conditions of Category 6 hurricanes.
This simulation, which will take approximately 4 years to complete, will consider various aspects of hurricanes, including wind speed, rain, and storm surge. Such valuable information will allow organizations to modify policies and standards against hurricane damage. As Erik Salna of the International Hurricane Research Center says, the simulation “advances this whole area of resilience” and “will be able to show what are those multiple effects on the built environment from big, complex storms.”
Though it is unlikely that extreme hurricanes from Category 6 will occur frequently, especially since Category 5 hurricanes are rare, it is still essential that we create this simulation to prevent further damage to our society, as stronger hurricanes continue to increase due to climate change.
Q & A:
Anna: What specific instruments (satellites, radars, buoys, etc.) are needed for scientists to mimic conditions of Category 6 hurricanes?
Scientists would use a wind tunnel and a wave maker to create conditions that could allow the simulation of hurricanes. Satellites, radars, and buoys or other technologies are applied to predict the path and form of the hurricanes instead of simulating them.
John: What are the impacts and damage that hurricanes bring to society? I think it would be great if you could add a brief description of how previous hurricanes brought damage and destruction to society so that the readers can understand a better connection with the last sentence of this article.
Hurricanes result in destroyed infrastructure. Homes, factories, and farms are often damaged, and extreme hurricanes result in many casualties.
Ian: How could stimulations of Category 6 hurricanes help prevent greater damage on society?
Simulations of Category 6 hurricanes would help prevent greater damage because the simulation allows scientists to recognize the intensity and possible damages the the hurricanes can make. With such information, it is likely that the government organizes stringent protocols and post-damage procedures.
Jennah: Could you provide some specific aspects of climate change that impact in greater intensities of hurricanes?
Warmer sea surface temperatures and sea level rise due to climate change continues to impact the intensities of hurricanes.
Hannah: Has climate change impacted the regions that are under the risk of hurricanes? For example, are there any regions that used to not have hurricanes that recently started having them?
It is not clear whether climate change has impacted the regions; however, meteorologists observed patterns that indicate that the progression of climate change results in greater intensities of hurricanes.
David: Will this simulation and preparation for Category 6 hurricanes be implemented in specific regions and are there governments that are planning to use the simulations?
Yes; while the simulation will not be available in all potentially affected regions, all regions will likely receive information on the risks and damages Category 6 hurricanes bring. Governments will then use such information to plan protocols for citizens to reduce damage.
Fabian: What are some existing safety precautions that are available for residents when hurricane occurs? Will these precautions be further intensified from the Category 6 classification?
Some existing precautions that are available are going to the highest level of the building or taking refuge in a storm shelter. Governments are currently working to repair damages and create shelters. With the Category 6 simulation, governments would be able to intensify precautions and prepare for greater damage in order to protect and repair the society more efficiently.
Works Cited
Bay, Author: 10 Tampa. “How Many Category 5 Hurricanes Have Made Landfall in the US?” Wtsp.com, 31 Aug. 2021, https://www.wtsp.com/article/weather/hurricane/category-5-hurricane-landfall-us/67-6975778f-57b9-4b84-a0f7-69b58804e4b1.
Gramling, Carolyn. “Scientists Hope to Mimic the Most Extreme Hurricane Conditions.” Science News, 26 May 2022, https://www.sciencenews.org/article/hurricane-season-testing-extreme-wind-water-conditions.
“Hurricanes and Climate Change.” Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, 15 Dec. 2020, https://www.c2es.org/content/hurricanes-and-climate-change/.
Pittman, Travis. “How Many Category 5 Hurricanes Have Hit the US?” abc10.Com, KXTV, 29 Aug. 2021, https://www.abc10.com/article/news/nation-world/category-5-hurricanes-hit-us/507-85d0786d-4eaf-4c29-a997-01d8eaa36279#:~:text=A%20Category%205%20has%20maximum,manufactured%20homes%20or%20framed%20homes.
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
US Department of Commerce, NOAA. “Hurricane Dorian, September 6, 2019.” National Weather Service, NOAA's National Weather Service, 9 Sept. 2019, https://www.weather.gov/mhx/Dorian2019.
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